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LEGISLATION COMMITTEE

Meeting Date:	11/21/2022
Subject: 2022 General Election Summary
Submitted For:	LEGISLATION COMMITTEE
Department:	County Administrator
Referral No.:	2022-15
Referral Name:	General Election Summary
Presenter:	Nielsen Merksamer, Thorn Run Partners	Contact:	L. DeLaney, (925) 655-2057

Information

Referral History:

The Legislation Committee periodically reviews and discusses the results of elections.

Referral Update:

Election summaries for the November 8, 2022 general election have been provided by our state and federal advocates, Nielsen Merksamer and Thorn Run Partners (TRP).

Federal Government:

— PELOSI LEADERSHIP ANNOUNCEMENT IMMINENT. Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) is reportedly expected to announce her plans for the future at noon today (Nov. 17). Early reports suggest that the Speaker will announce her intention to resign from leadership but will plan to remain in Congress. With a better-than-expected performance by Democrats in the 2022 midterm elections, others within Democratic leadership — particularly Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD) — may vie to maintain their current posts for the remainder of President Joe Biden’s first term.

In midterm election news, Republicans have officially won control of the House after Rep. Mike Garcia's (R-CA) re-election clinched the necessary 218 seats needed to win the Speaker’s gavel in a divided 118th Congress. As it currently stands, House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) is in position to be Speaker of the House next year after emerging victorious during Tuesday’s GOP conference leadership elections. However, with 31 Republicans voting against Leader McCarthy in the conference election — coupled with a smaller, single-digit majority next Congress — the Republican Leader will have little margin for error as he looks to shore up the 218 votes he needs on the House floor to win the gavel.

What this means for the ‘lame duck.’ Senate appropriators are pushing to reach an agreement on topline funding levels for fiscal year (FY) 2023 — a key precursor to a year-end spending package. With the prospects of divided government on the horizon, lawmakers appear motivated to tie up loose ends on several bipartisan legislative efforts prior to the start of the 118th Congress. However, cooperation amongst Democratic and Republican leadership will be crucial, especially in the evenly-divided Senate. Any extraneous policy riders that imperil the omnibus’ chances of reaching 60 votes will likely fall by the wayside to ensure that the government remains funded past the December 16 deadline.

As it currently stands, 429 out of the 435 House races have been officially called by the Associated Press. Below is a breakdown of where things stand in the race to control Congress.

GOP House Seats Won: 218 (+8)
Dem House Seats Won: 211 (-8)
GOP Senate Seats Won: 49 (-1)
Dem Senate Seats Won: 50 (+1)

Attachment A contains more information on the outcome of the federal races.

State Government

State Legislature. A handful of uncalled races are highlighted below., The Democrats will retain their supermajority status in both Chambers despite the loss of one seat in the Senate (Senate Democrats have a net gain even with the loss of SD 16). In the Assembly, AD 47 is now too close to call as the Republican candidate has gained significant ground.

AD 7 (Cooley-D v. Hoover-R). Incumbent Ken Cooley’s continues to lead his Republican challenger Josh Hoover but the lead from Monday has shrunk and now stands at 906 votes. There are 145,142 unprocessed ballots remaining in Sacramento County.

AD 27 (Soria-D v. Pazin-R). This race is once again considered a close contest (where the margin is less than 2%).as Mark Pazin has cut into Esmeralda Soria’s lead. Soria is ahead of Pazin by 1,581 votes. Fresno, Madera and Merced Counties still have 35,270 ballots left to count.

AD 40 (Valladares R v. Schiavo R). This is a new entry to the close contests list as Republican Suzette Martinez Valladares’ previous lead over Democratic challenger Pilar Schiavo has shrunk considerably. Valladares now leads Schiavo by 2,452 votes with 463,050 unprocessed ballots in Los Angeles County.

AD 47 (Holstege D v. Wallis R). In the last couple of days, this race has tightened and now lands on the close contest list. Assembly Democrats were hoping to pick up this vacated by Chad Mayes (I), but Greg Wallis has been steadily chipping away Christy Holstege’s lead. There are 163,500 ballots left to be processed in Riverside and San Bernardino Counties and only 1,239 separate the candidates.

Attachment B includes further details on the State results

Recommendation(s)/Next Step(s):

RECEIVE the reports on the November 8, 2022 general election.

Attachments
Attachment A: Federal 2022 Election Recap & Policy Outlook
Attachment B: 2022 State General Election Results Update